Posted by Bill San Antonio
We missed you guys last week, but now we’re back with a vengance-ok not really but I thought it sounded cool. Matt and I agree on three of four picks this week, so instead we choose to disagree on other things.
23South Florida/Cincinnati (+3)
Matt: Once again, USF needs this game and that extra drive should push them to a win on the road. But don’t sleep on Cincy’s talent combined with the Bulls nasty habit of dropping huge games down the stretch (they lost three straight last year after being ranked No. 2 in the AP Poll). We know Matt Grothe can pass the ball (273 yards per game), but the one thing that will bring them down against the Bearcats is a repeat of last week’s poor rushing performance. Grothe and tailback Mike Ford combined for -14 rushing yards in the loss to Louisville last Saturday. Ford did not start the game because of a lingering ankle injury, and that might be a factor again this week. But if they balance the attack, they will easily handle Cincinnati.
Bill: The Bulls have stumbled a bit, losing key conference games to Pitt and Louisville last week. They are still the best team in the conference, taking on a vulnerable Cincinnati team this week that conceded 40 to Connecticut last week. USF has to move the ball on the ground. Matt Grothe may be extremely talented (30 of 40 last week), but even he can’t do it all himself (USF lost 24-20). The offense has to click the way it did against Syracuse two weeks ago. Cincinnati will put up a pride fight, but South Florida will pull it out. (more…)